Trump keeps forecasting an Iran deal — why the White House still thinks it can happen

Iran launches missiles towards Israel in an unknown location, as shown in a video released on June 7, 2026.(Pool/WANA/Reuters)

Negotiators continue to face fundamental disagreements over Iran’s nuclear program despite months of talks.But analysts who see a path to a deal often point to the growing pressure facing Iran. 

Miad Maleki, a former Treasury Department sanctions official and senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, argued that Iran is facing mounting economic and diplomatic pressure that could eventually force the regime to reconsider positions it has so far refused to abandon.

“Every day that theblockade remains in place, Iran is getting closer to a complete economic collapse,�

Maleki argued that Iran’s position has deteriorated during the ceasefire, citing continued economic pressure, additional sanctions and the loss of senior regime figures during the conflict.

“The regime is under severe pressure economically and diplomatically,” he said.

That pressure may help explain why administration officials continue to view diplomacy as a viable path despite the slow pace of progress.

The Trump administration has maintained that Iran cannot be permitted to continue enriching uranium, arguing that even civilian enrichment capabilities could provide Iran with a pathway to a nuclear weapon.Iranian officials, meanwhile, insist they retain the right to enrich uranium for peaceful energy purposes and have resisted proposals requiring a permanent halt to enrichment activities on Iranian soil.

Negotiators also have sparred over the fate of Iran’s uranium stockpile. 

Before inspectors lost visibility into key facilities, the International Atomic Energy Agency estimated Iran possessed roughly 440 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60% purity — just below weapons-grade levels and enough, if further enriched, for multiple nuclear weapons.

Those unresolved disputes have fueled skepticism about whether a breakthrough is truly imminent.But Iran is not the only actor facing pressure to avoid renewed conflict.

The conflict already has pushedenergy priceshigher and disrupted global shipping routes, with analysts warning that the economic fallout could persist for months even if maritime traffic resumes immediately.

The U.S.military has been enforcing a naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, even during the ceasefire.(U.S.Central Command)

Moody’s Analytics has estimated the conflict has cost American households roughly $100 billion over the past three months through higher fuel, transportation and related costs.

Trump’s confidence has also coincided with increasingly public disagreements with Netanyahu about how to handle Iran.

The president recently said Netanyahu would have “no choice” but to accept a deal with Tehran, comments that fueled speculation about growing differences between Washington and Jerusalem.

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Ehud Eilam, a former researcher for Israel’s Ministry of Defense, said Israel and the United States share the goal of preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon but often approach the challenge from different strategic perspectives.

“Iran poses a much bigger threat to Israel compared with the danger Iran presents to the United States,�

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Eilam also argued that Washington retains significant leverage over Israeli decision-making through military aid and weapons transfers.

“The delivery of U.S.weapons and ammunition to Israel, now and later, gives the Trump administration major leverage to convince Israel to accept a deal with Iran,” he said.