Expert warns of ‘general escalation’of fighting if Houthis resume Red Sea campaign

World Data Locator Map, Ethiopia.(Encyclopedia Britannica/Universal Images Group via Getty Images)

And despite it being landlocked, Ethiopian researcher Blen M.�a keystone state” on the Islamist expansionist “highway” that has formed all the way from Iran to Sudan.

Diriba, executive director of the Horn Review — an Addis Ababa-based research and publication think tank “Ethiopia, long a frontline U.S.security partner, now sits at the center of an expanding pressure zone where maritime disruption, insurgent violence,terrorist threats, and proxy competition converge.”

Diriba added.“Iran’s Bab el-Mandeb threat transforms the Horn of Africa into a militarized frontline, placing Ethiopia at the center of a choke point crisis.With Iranian influence radiating through conflict ecosystems in Sudan, Eritrea and Somalia, the region is beginning to resemble a continuous arc of instability stretching from theArabian Peninsulainto East Africa.”

Read More → Researchers develop face ‘e-tattoo’to track mental workload in high-stress jobs

“Ethiopia sits at the center of one of the world’s most combustible security corridors,” Diriba continued.“And in strategic terms, its relevance to the United States is amplified, not diminished, by that reality: From the Red Sea disruptions driven by the Houthis to the persistentinsurgency threat of al-Shababin Somalia, Ethiopia functions as a massive inland security buffer whose stability directly shapes whether these threats expand or are contained.”

IRAN’S KILLER DRONES INCREASE SLAUGHTER IN SUDAN AMID WORLD’S FORGOTTEN WAR

Members of the Ethiopian National Defense Force parade during the 116th celebration of Ethiopian Defense Force day in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, on Oct.26, 2023.(Amanuel Sileshi/AFP via Getty Images)

But in addition to being pro-U.S., Ethiopia also has relations with Iran.

Fitton-Brown believes to some extent Ethiopia can be accused of playing both sides, as he said Tehran “has helped Ethiopia with its internalconflicts, giving drone support and military aid to the Ethiopian government during the recent Tigray War.”

He added, “There is a new memorandum of understanding built upon that basis, with Iran gaining influence in Ethiopia, while Ethiopia receives military, police and intelligence support to counter its domestic ethnic insurgencies.”

Read More → Americans born after 1970 face higher death rates from several major causes in middle age

 However, Diriba said, “Ethiopia’s engagement with Iran is neither affinity nor alignment, it’s strategic awareness: keeping channels open to engage where necessary, cooperate selectively, and strategically manage its relations with a complex regional actor, while firmly anchoring its core partnerships with its emerging and long-standing partners — the United States being on the top of that list.”

A drone view shows vessels anchored in the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from Musandam, Oman, May 25, 2026.(Stringer TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY via Reuters)

“Ethiopia has pursued a flexible multi-alignment strategy, Diriba said, “prioritizing its entrenched security partnership with Washington while keeping open channels with Tehran to preserve diplomatic room to maneuver in an increasingly fragmented Horn of Africa–Red Sea order.”

onelink.me/xLDS?pid=AppArticleLink&af_web_dp=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.

Read More → Chris ‘The Bear’Fallica’s World Cup Best Bets Today — Match Day 8

Fitton-Brown said relations between the U.S.and Ethiopia “are good, especially in the field of counterterrorism.Both countriesuse Somaliland to their advantagewithout having gone so far as to recognize it as an independent state.”

Paul Tilsley is a veteran correspondent who has reported from four continents for more than three decades.Based in Johannesburg, South Africa, he can be followed on X @paultilsley.