DOUG SCHOEN: Far-left gamble in Maine blows up, leaving Democrats with one choice

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Backlash intensifies as Graham Platner drops Senate bid

Former Maine Senate nominee Graham Platner withdraws from the race after a rape accusation, sparking political uproar.Platner blames the media and political establishment for his downfall, while critics, including Pennsylvania Senator John Fetterman, denounce his “narcissistic” video.Democrats now race to select a new nominee by July 27, with figures like Troy Jackson emerging.

Democrats are facing a crisis after the implosion of Graham Platner’s candidacy in Maine following explosive allegations of sexual assault and his withdrawal from the race.

To that end, it is clear that Democrats’ strategy — particularly the approach of democratic socialists — of picking far-left candidates with no experience and without vetting is fraught with peril, as Platner’s case underscores.

Right now, Democrats have one last opportunity to seize victory from the jaws of potential defeat, and it’s critical they take it.

PLATNER CAMPAIGN PUTTING ‘THUMB ON SCALE’ TO INFLUENCE POSSIBLE REPLACEMENT, MAINE DEM ALLEGES

What must Democrats do?

Plainly, they need to avoid repeating the coronation process used byformer President Joe Bidenand former Vice President Kamala Harris.

Quite simply, Maine Democrats must use the next two weeks to start a robust process that ideally goes deeper than their 600-delegate nominating convention.

Indeed, they should let prospective candidates for the party’s nomination participate in town halls, rallies and other events.

Voters deserve the ability to question the multitude of candidates about their positions and to interact with the candidates in a way that provides the delegates with sufficient feedback to pick a viable candidate.

This would allow Maine voters a chance to hear what the candidates have to say, why voters should support them, and how each plans to compete with Republicans nationally as well as against incumbent Sen.Susan Collins.

PLATNER CAMPAIGN PUTTING ‘THUMB ON SCALE’ TO INFLUENCE POSSIBLE REPLACEMENT, MAINE DEM ALLEGES

In my opinion, arguments calling to blindly elevate Troy Jackson hold no water.

Jackson – a former Platner supporter until it became inconvenient – has received the most attention, as he’s ideologically very similar to Platner, yet the latter won an uncontested primary with just 72% of the vote.

In other words, nearly 30% of Maine Democrats did not support Platner, whether due to ideology or past controversies.Thus, a fully open process is needed.

To be sure, I previously recommended Democrats undertake this process in 2024.

Then, my party missed an absolutely critical lesson: the process matters just as much as the candidate, but in this case it actually matters more.

Rather than having the state Democratic Party select a nominee, it would be best to have as close to a primary as the system – and time – will allow.

PLATNER CALLS IT QUITS, DROPS SENATE BID AMID MOUNTING SCANDALS

If possible, this should include a televised debate, so voters have as much information as possible.

Moreover, this would give both wings of the Democratic electorate — establishment and progressive — the chance to fully vet prospective candidates and then choose based on background, proposed policies and ideology.

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The outcome of this election, despite Platner’s collapse, is not a foregone conclusion.

Deeply flawed, Platner remained competitive with Collins despite seemingly endless revelations about his character and incendiary comments over the last year.

Put another way, it is the case that my party still has a chance — albeit a diminishing one — to win the seat.

However, that cannot happen without a healthy and transparent nominating process with candidates who have previously been fully vetted.

The three strongest candidates, in my opinion, are incumbent Gov.Janet Mills, who withdrew her candidacy earlier in the year;Rep.Jared Golden or Dr.Nirav Shah, the epidemiologist, economist, attorney and politician who finished second in the ranked-choice Democratic gubernatorial primary in 2024.

Further, Sheena Bellows, Maine’s secretary of state, would be a prospective candidate alongside Jackson and the aforementioned officials.

More important than what I think about each candidate, however, is ensuring the process gives Mainers a chance to pick a candidate who truly reflects their worldview.

The impact that the repeated headlines have already had on the Democratic brand is clear and obvious.

At the same time, with August’s Senate primary in Michigan now a two-way race between centrist Haley Stevens and far-left progressive Abdul El-Sayed, the choice betweensocialists and moderatesbecomes clear and apparent.

It is now a real possibility that El-Sayed emerges as the nominee.He has a 5-point lead over Stevens in the polls, and Mallory McMorrow’s withdrawal ended the threat of splitting the progressive, activist-class vote.

As such, it is increasingly important that Maine Democrats demonstrate their commitment to democracy and rally behind whichever candidate comes out of this two-week process, rather than try to orchestrate an outcome they deem preferable.

Failure to avoid the Joe Biden-Kamala Harris model will further damage theDemocratic Party and its brand, hurting us going forward just as it hurt Harris in the 2024 election.

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Ultimately, as a Democrat, I very much hope that this process plays out.And in terms of electability, I remain convinced that a centrist offers the best chance for success, not to mention the benefits it gives Democrats hoping to shed their party’s “socialist” label.

That said, as we sit here today, unless Democrats adopt some variant of the approach I’ve outlined, the impact in November is likely to be clearly and obviously detrimental.

Douglas E.Schoen has more than 40 years of experience as a pollster and political consultant.He served as an adviser to President Bill Clinton and to the presidential campaign of Michael Bloomberg.Schoen is founder and partner of Schoen Cooperman Research.