As the holidays approach, Thanksgiving becomes Trump’s economic test

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Americans are heading into the holidays uneasy about the economy, even as inflation slowly cools.

As the holidays approach, Thanksgiving has become a kind of national check-in on PresidentDonald Trump‘s economic stewardship and whether voters believe his affordability promises are finally paying off. 

That uncertainty is reflected in how consumers are approaching the holidays, cautious about big purchases but still willing to spend selectively when they find value.That mix of caution and compromise is something Joanne Hsu, director and chief economist of the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers, has been tracking closely. 

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“Our interviews reveal that consumers believe that now is a very unfavorable time for major purchases for multiple reasons, including high prices and high borrowing costs,�“It is possible, however, that consumers may still be willing to spend on smaller-ticket items.That said, it is likely that consumers will be looking for value and the best way to stretch their dollars given that they generally do not feel confident about the economy at this time,” Hsu added.

U.S. President Donald Trump walks out of the White House.

President Donald Trump faces a key economic test this holiday season.(Win McNamee/Getty Images)

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That disconnect between improving data and persistent pessimism poses a political challenge for Trump, who rode promises of affordability back to the White House but is now confronting voter doubts about whether that promise is being met.

According to aJoe Biden’stenure.Voters largely blame Trump for the downturn, with about twice as many holding him responsible for the current economy as Biden, and three times as many saying his policies have hurt them personally.

At the same time, approval of Trump’s handling of the economy has dropped to a new low, while disapproval of his overall job performance has climbed to record highs, even among some of his core supporters.

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Democrats leaned heavily on affordability themes in state and local elections this fall and it paid off.

In places like Virginia, New York and New Jersey, where voters have been squeezed by highhousing costsand utility bills, Democratic candidates seized on Trump’s early economic moves, including his trade policy, to argue that his policies were worsening the affordability crisis rather than easing it.

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New York City mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani waves to those attending a campaign rally

New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani placed affordability at the center of his campaign to helm America’s largest city.(Christian Monterrosa/Bloomberg/Getty Images)

They promised to rein in energy costs, expand affordable housing and protect middle-class wages, a message that resonated with voters and analysts say, reflects a broader trend: in aneconomywhere many still feel stretched thin, the party that speaks most directly to people’s pocketbooks often wins.

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“I think they made a real strategic blunder back in January and February and that is that the president ran on inflation and promised to lower prices and then his very first and most prominent policy moves were to enact policies that were going to increase prices,” Scott Lincicome, the vice president of general economics at Cato’s Herbert A.

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President Donald Trump holding a poster of his administration

President Donald Trump has previously said tariffs are a key part of his national security agenda.(Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

“Americans aren’t stupid, and they can put two and two together.If the guy who promised you lower prices then suddenly promises to raise prices and prices go up, well, guess what?That guy is going to get blamed,” Lincicome added.

For Trump, the real test may come not from economic data but from dinner-table conversations.If Americans don’t yet feel the relief he promised, this Thanksgiving could reveal just how far affordability remains out of reach.

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