LISA DAFTARI: Trump’s Iran MOU is just a framework — now comes the real test

President Donald Trump, center, gestures as he addresses the media alongside United States Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, left;Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, second left;Secretary of State Marco Rubio, second right;and US Secretary of Treasury Scott Bessent during a closing news conference at the G7 summit in Evian, France(Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images)

Is there even a deal that will be upheld by a duplicitous regime?Perhaps not, but at the very least, a final agreement that locks in dismantlement, stages sanctions relief against demonstrated compliance and preserves every snapback tool would be more prudent.A repeat of the JCPOA’s structure, money up front and a managed path to enrichment would be the most expensive diplomatic concession in modern memory.

The JCPOA had two fatal flaws, and both are avoidable.

The first was the cash transfer.Between unfrozen assets and direct payments, the Islamic Republic received roughly $100 billion in spendable resources within the first phase of the agreement.That money did not go to schools or hospitals.It went to the IRGC, to Hezbollah, to the Houthis, toHamas, to the proxy network that has defined the regional security environment for the last decade.Front-loaded sanctions relief does not inspire good behavior.It pays for the terror proxies. 

The second was the architecture of thesunset clauses.The 2015 agreement did not stop the Iran nuclear program.It only managed its path to the bomb.By 2030, on paper, every meaningful restriction lifts.The regime understood the deal not as a containment regime but as a delay regime, and it used the delay to advance enrichment, expand missile capacity and entrench the very infrastructure the agreement was supposed to constrain. 

Read More → Democrats’new-wave socialists are winning primaries but face a harsh reality in general elections

President Pezeshkian said Iran would rebuild the nuclear sites targeted by the U.S.and make them stronger in 2025.(Iranian Presidency/Handout/Anadolu via Getty Images)

The final MOU agreement must invert that logic.Restrictions must be permanent, and verification must be intrusive.Enrichment capacity must be physically removed, not paused.

There is a third condition that does not get enough attention in Washington and is non-negotiable in Tehran.There needs to be a credible threat of consequence at the moment of noncompliance. 

Read More → Tourist breaches safety barrier at world’s largest waterfall system to recover cellphone

The Islamic Republichonors agreements only whenthe cost of violation exceeds the benefit.That equation has to be visible to the regime at the signing table and at every subsequent inspection.That means kinetic options remain on the table.Economic warfare tools remain ready.Political pressure escalates automatically.Snapback cannot be procedural.It must be automatic and it must bite.

What is this agreement for?If it is to prevent an Iranian nuclear weapon, then dismantlement and surrender of enriched uranium are the only acceptable terms.If it is to stabilize theStrait of Hormuzor to reduce regional friction, those are secondary objectives that should be pursued through other instruments.Conflating nonproliferation with regional diplomacy is what produced the JCPOA.The 2015 deal tried to do too many things and ended up doing none of them.

Read More → Low-impact routine may help adults lower blood pressure at home

The U.S.military struck three nuclear sites in Iran June 21, 2025.

Read More → Elite colleges are losing America’s trust.Community colleges can win it back

The Iranian people are not an afterthought in this negotiation.They are a constituency.The regime they live under executed an estimated 42,000 of them in theJanuary protests alone.Two more political prisoners were hanged since the MOU was announced.Any agreement should factor in the moral and strategic reality of a regime that murders its own citizens on an industrial scale.

onelink.me/xLDS?pid=AppArticleLink&af_web_dp=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.

This is the moment for the administration torefuse a bad dealand to define a good one.Verifiable dismantlement.Permanent restrictions.Staged sanctions relief tied to sustained compliance.Snapback with teeth.Enriched uranium out of regime hands. 

The regime came to the table because pressure worked.The president should remember why he had leverage in the first place, and use it.

Lisa Daftari is a foreign policy analyst and editor-in-chief at The Foreign Desk.