Hamas influence looms over Gaza elections as experts warn vote could backfire

Election campaign banners showing candidates for the upcoming municipal elections hang on a building in Deir al-Balah in the central Gaza Strip April 21, 2026.(Eyad Baba/AFP via Getty Images)

Four parties are contesting the election in Deir al-Balah.To be eligible, candidates were asked to accept the Palestine Liberation Organization and the terms of agreements it has previously made, including recognition of theState of Israeland endorsement of a two-state solution, according to reporting by the Center for Peace Communications.

However, many are concerned that one party, Deir al-Balah Unites Us, is affiliated with Hamas.Two of its candidates have been pictured with Hamas officials or police officers.

Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib, resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council,posted on Xthat “holding elections in Gaza at this time is extremely reckless and irresponsible,” noting that “Gazans are being arrested, jailed, tortured, shot, and killed daily for social media posts and anything they say that’s perceived as being critical of Hamas. 

“These elections should be halted and prevented from proceeding, for they are meddling with the transition process that the Board of Peace, [National Council for the Administration of Gaza], and the international community have planned for Gaza, with Hamas’s disarmament and relinquishment of power being the first necessary step.”

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Disarmament of Hamas, a key demand within the second phase of President Donald Trump’s ceasefire agreement, has yet to be completed.Reports indicate that Hamas has increased its hold in Gaza as of March, continuing to tax locals, building education system and placing police throughout the territory it holds.

Hamas terrorists stand guard in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip Feb.22, 2025, during the handover of hostages as part of a ceasefire and hostage-prisoner swap deal with Israel.(Hatem Khaled/Reuters)

Schanzer saidHamas is unlikely to handover its arms.If it were to do so, he said that they “will try to make distinctions between weapons,” possibly offering to give up heavy weapons like RPGs while maintaining a large arsenal of automatic weapons.

Hamas appears to have made a partial disarmament offer.The New York Times reported April 19 that two Hamas officials said they would hand over thousands of weapons from their police force and other security institutions.The officials “did not provide a clear answer” when asked if weapons from Hamas’ so-called military wing would be included.

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HAMAS FACES ‘LEGITIMACY CRISIS’ AS DESPERATE GAZANS FLOCK TO US-BACKED AID CENTERS

President Donald Trump holds up a signed agreement during a world leaders summit focused on ending the Gaza war in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, on Oct.13.(Suzanne Plunkett/Getty Images)

Schanzer pushed back on claims that Hamas’ political and military wings operate separately. 

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“That is a fiction.The idea that they are separate in any way or that there is a firewall between them is asinine.” He said that this is “a distinction that has been made up by the West in order to be able to have political relations with Hamas, or to justify elections.It’s a mistake to buy into that fiction.”

Schanzer saidweakening Iran could be keyto minimizing Hamas’ influence. 

“The psychological impact of their top patron being defeated on the battlefield, I can’t overstate how important that event could be,” he said.“It would be a gut punch to Hamas.”

An election campaign starts in the city of Deir al-Balah, Gaza on April 12, 2026, as part of the local elections scheduled for April 25.(Mohammed Eslayeh/Anadolu via Getty Images)

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With Israel controlling about 53% of the Gaza Strip and Hamas the remaining 47%, Schanzer said, “We could continue to see theerosion of Hamas control” amid the “slow and steady process of Israel winning on the ground.” 

He said patience, though, is necessary, adding that “the enemies of the United States and Israel and the West have a very different timeline.They want to wait out everybody because they know that we’d like to move on.”

�s questions about whether a partial disarmament would satisfy its ceasefire terms or if it would take action to stall elections until there’s more stability in Gaza

Beth Bailey is a reporter covering Afghanistan, the Middle East, Asia, the United Nations, Central America and antisemitism.She was formerly a civilian intelligence analyst with the Department of the Army.You can follow Beth on X @BWBailey85