Republicans bet higher tax refunds will boost midterm chances as blue states resist relief

Donald Trump receives two bags of McDonald’s delivered to the Oval Office ahead of Tax Day to promote his “no tax on tips” initiative.(Win McNamee/Getty Images)

STRATEGY SESSION: TRUMP’S TEAM HUDDLES ON MIDTERM MESSAGING WITH SPOTLIGHT ON ECONOMY

As they look to defend their slim House majority, the GOP is ramping up its messaging to promote the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, also known as the Working Families Tax Cuts.Republicans spent Tax Day on Wednesday touting larger refunds this year while highlightingDemocratic lawmakers’ oppositionto the tax bill that passed with solely GOP votes. 

The average refund this year isover $3,400, amounting to an 11% increase compared to last tax season, according to data released by the Internal Revenue Service on Wednesday.

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Republicans have pointed to those returns as early proof their tax policy is reaching voters’ wallets.

A vast swath of Americans is also benefiting from new tax cuts that Trump first floated on the 2024 campaign trail.

More than 53 million tax filers claimed new deductions for tips, overtime pay, automobile loans or being over the age of 65, according to the Treasury Department.Some are also receiving a larger child tax credit and relief for state and local taxes.

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“When you’re seeing it in your tax return, when you’re seeing it in your paycheck, when you’re actually able to feel that, I think that’s going to make a difference to put us in a good spot for 2026,” Rep.Riley Moore,R-W.Va., said Wednesday.

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Democrats, however, argue those benefits may not be enough to overcome Americans’ broader economic concerns.

The party is voicing increasing confidence it will retake House control and put the Senate in play this November, citing voter discontent about cost-of-living issues and Trump’s declining approval ratings.Republicans must also overcome the trend of the party in power shedding seats during amidterm year.

“A lot of people want to count us out in November,” Emmer said during a GOP messaging event highlighting the new tax benefits on Wednesday.“We’re going to be just fine, because we’ve got a great map in the House.We’ve got great candidates across the country.”

(Graeme Sloan/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

AVERAGE TAX REFUND TOPS $3,700 MIDWAY THROUGH FILING SEASON, TREASURY SAYS

Democrats have largely opposed the tax cuts, arguing they disproportionately benefit corporations and the wealthy. 

But Republicans say working Americans and small businesses will see a smaller tax bill this year as a result of their policies. 

�morale booster” for law enforcement putting in extra hours.

More than 25 million Americans have claimed the new tax break with an average deduction of more than $3,100, according to the IRS. 

Republicans are also highlighting a slate ofbusiness tax breaks,which beneficiaries argue could boost job growth and provide economic benefits to their community.

“It gave me the certainty and the confidence to go out and make capital investments,�

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“For everything we invested in, we need to create those new positions on our team,” Silver added. 

The United States could have shed nearly 6 million jobs if Republicans had failed to extend the 2017 tax cuts through the party’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, according to the National Association of Manufacturers.

Data released by the Treasury Department reveals Americans on average saw an 11% increase in tax refunds this year compared to last filing season.(Michael Bocchieri/Getty Images)

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Still, seven in 10 Americans say theirNevada and Arizonabeginning Thursday to highlight his “no tax on tips” and “no tax on overtime” policies as he goes to bat for Republicans to help them keep their bicameral congressional majority in this year’s midterm elections.