Shadow fleet under fire: Iran’s strait shutdown could squeeze Russia’s war chest, China’s oil lifeline

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Tehran’s strike campaign threatens to disrupt shadow shipping networks and sanctions-evasion routes, raising energy costs for Moscow and Beijing and potentially squeezing Russia’s war funding and China’s industrial and military supply chains.

As of Monday, the Iranian regime declared the crucial Strait of Hormuz — between Hormuz Island, Iran, and the Omani enclave of Khasab — closed, under threat of vessels being “torched.”

Oil tanker traffic immediately fell sharply as merchant seamen now fear missile strikes, but the conflict has also affected the so-called “shadow fleet” of unflagged or surreptitiously flagged oil tankers connected to economically isolated countries like Cuba, Iran and Russia.

The U.S.has already set up a quasi naval quarantine ofoil imports to Cuba, while countries like Mexico have been warned against sending oil to malign regimes.

Satellite view showing the Strait of Hormuz connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman

A satellite image shows the Strait of Hormuz, a key maritime passage connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman, vital for global energy supply.

European partners have alsotaken action against “shadow fleet”vessels, tightening the vise on China and particularly Russia amid the new unrest.

Belgium’s army on Monday interdicted a shadow-fleet tanker called the MT Ethera as it transited the North Sea.

Belgian Defense Minister Theo Franckentold GCaptain Newsthat the tanker was redirected to Zeebrugge by an escort and would be seized by Brussels.

“Operation Blue Intruder was carried out by a team of exceptionally brave service members.Excellent work,” he said, as the outlet also reported the ship was tied to a confidant of Khamenei.

The MT Ethera is reportedly linked to the son of senior political adviser Ali Shamkhani, whose family reportedly controls an entire fleet of tankers that may be used to facilitate Iranian and Russian oil trade.

RUSSIAN OIL TANKER ‘THE GRINCH’ INTERCEPTED AS US, ALLIES ESCALATE SANCTIONS CRACKDOWN

A timelapse video shows marine traffic moving through the Strait of Hormuz.(Kpler/Marine Traffic)

A consortium of Western powers also enforces the Ural Price Cap, which was dropped to about $44 per barrel last month.Named for the Ural Mountains, the price cap is meant to keep Russian oil below free-market rates.

This newly emboldened Western targeting of the so-called “gray market” of shadow-fleet oil indicates potential problems for nations that rely on it, such asChina and Cuba.

China reportedly relies heavily on Iran for otherwise sanctioned oil, while Russia could see further belt-tightening that could adversely affect the cash flow needed to continue its war in Ukraine.

Additionally, CENTCOM this week posted a video of a U.S.strike on a drone-carrying Iranian ship, and Cmdr.Brad Cooper said more than 30 such Tehran-linked vessels have been sunk since the offensive began,according to Naval Today.

“In the last few hours alone, we struck an Iranian drone carrier roughly the size of a World War II-era aircraft carrier, and it is currently on fire,” Cooper told the outlet.

The reported obliteration of the Ayatollah and the next 48 successors, by PresidentDonald Trump’s count, along with the arrest of Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro, leaves not only the shadow fleet but also its customer nations’ suppliers in shambles.

FIRES RAGE AT IRAN’S BANDAR ABBAS NAVAL HEADQUARTERS, STRAIT OF HORMUZ TRAFFIC STALLED

Just as OPEC rate hikes affect American energy prices, the deconstruction of the shadow fleet could also lead to inflation in China.

S.Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC).

In the past few weeks,OFAC has sanctioned30 people or entities tied to enabling illegal Iranian oil sales and/or benefiting its weapons production as part of Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign.

“OFAC targeted additional vessels operating as part of Iran’s shadow fleet, which transport Iranian petroleum and petroleum products to foreign markets and serve as the regime’s primary source of revenue for financing domestic repression, terrorist proxies, and weapons programs,” the agency said in a statement.

“Iran exploits financial systems to sell illicit oil, launder the proceeds, procure components for its nuclear and conventional weapons programs, and support its terrorist proxies,” added Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

“Treasury will continue to put maximum pressure on Iran to target the regime’s weapons capabilities and support for terrorism, which it has prioritized over the lives of the Iranian people,” Bessent said.

GAS PRICES COULD JUMP AS MIDDLE EAST TENSIONS THREATEN GLOBAL OIL SUPPLY

Dashan tanker sailing through the Bosphorus in Istanbul

The Dashan tanker from Russia’s shadow fleet transits the Bosphorus en route to the Black Sea in Istanbul.(Yoruk Isik/Reuters)

OFAC then listed off a dozen ships they confirmed to be “shadow fleet” vessels under sanction.

“Instead of allocating this revenue for the benefit of the Iranian people, the regime ultimately siphons it off to fund regional terrorist proxies, weapons programs, and repressive security services, rather than the basic economic needs the Iranian people have repeatedly and courageously demanded,” the Treasury said.

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Ships flagged fromPanama, Barbados, Palau, Comoros, Iran and Vanuatu were found by the U.S.to have transported millions of barrels of Iranian crude in recent years.

The Treasury Department, which oversees OFAC, did not respond to inquiries for this story.