DOUG SCHOEN: One big winner, one giant loser and one big problem after Trump’s State of the Union

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PresidentDonald Trumpgave a virtuoso performance Tuesday night.He achieved a number of important goals in hisState of the Unionaddress, but it is unclear whether he fundamentally changed the political dynamic in America.Still, it was a great performance — with profound messages.

The first and most important message was that the American people should associate the progress, future and success of the country with the Trump administration and theRepublican Party.The president spoke of transformations, turnarounds and, most of all, “the golden age of America.” It was moving and uplifting — though not necessarily as persuasive as he may have hoped.

To be sure, Trump made his most compelling case yet that the affordability crisis, which Democrats used to win the 2025 off-year elections, was now finally under control.

He also made it clear that his Republican Party hadpolicies on healthcare, retirement, prices and, most of all, taxes that he argued would benefit the American people in ways few have articulated.

At the same time, in ways I have never heard before, Trump used the speech to castigate not only the Biden administration but Democrats in Congress, who did little to present a unified front at the State of the Union.

Between Rep.Al Green, D-Texas, being ejected from the House chamber for the second year in a row and members of the “Squad” jeering Trump and wearing buttons with expletives, the messaging byDemocrats at the 2026 Stateof the Union was even worse than last year.That was especially true given the more than 30 empty seats in the chamber, as some Democrats chose to hold their own “People’s State of the Union” — whatever that might be.

Between Trump’s attacks and the Democrats’ behavior, it is hard to see how the country emerged more united after an extraordinary presentation that had to be moving to many Americans.Indeed, another strength ofTrump’s speechwas that he explicitly associated the country’s success with working people — especially heroes who have achieved extraordinary accomplishments for our nation, past and present.The explicit and implicit message was this: By standing with Trump and his policies, it was the only way America could achieve the success he spoke of in the context of the turnaround, the transformation, most of all, the “golden age” he said is underway.

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The president’s use of imagery was powerful — from the victorious U.S.Olympic hockey team to themilitary heroesrecognized in the chamber.It was awe-inspiring and moving, and it left me with a sense of pride in our country that I had not felt in years during a State of the Union address.

Still, on Tuesday night, I did not sense that many minds were changed or that manymidterm voterswere swayed by the president’s nearly one-hour, 40-minute speech.While I am by no means sympathetic to today’s Democratic Party — especially its progressive wing — the degree of attacks and venom expressed at what is traditionally a nonpartisan event was off-putting, even to someone who has spent 50 years in the rough-and-tumble of politics.

agenda for the midterm electionsand made it clear he will run a populist campaign based on economic empowerment and affordability, contrasting it with a Democratic Party that he said supports open borders, higher taxes and policies hostile to law and order.

I am convinced many Americans found the speech profoundly moving and compelling in ways political events rarely achieve.I am not convinced, however, that polls will show the fundamental change that Trump and Republicans hoped would follow the State of the Union.

Time will tell.

It was particularly compelling when Trump asked lawmakers in the chamber to stand if they believed in the “fundamental principle” that “the first duty of the American government is to protect American citizens, not illegal aliens.” Almost no Democrats stood.

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The move drew a predictable and lengthy standing ovation from Republicans.But I am not convinced that, given what polls show is widespread public concern about ICE’s actions, that the moment — as extraordinary as it was — will make immigration the winning issue it was in 2024.Yes, Americans recognize the Trump administration’s achievement in sealing the border.But many are now judging the president and his party more on ICE’s actions in major cities than on Homeland Security’s work at the border.

President Trump delivered a great speech Tuesday night, but a significant challenge remains: I do not believe many minds were changed, nor were Americans brought together.

Douglas E.Schoen has more than 40 years of experience as a pollster and political consultant.He served as an adviser to President Bill Clinton and to the presidential campaign of Michael Bloomberg.Schoen is founder and partner of Schoen Cooperman Research.