US ally on Putin’s doorstep braces for war as Russia tensions take ominous turn

Polish soldiers stand watch near the Belarus border, where officials say migration pressure has evolved into a form of hybrid warfare targeting NATO’s eastern flank, May 16, 2026.

The embassy pointed to Poland’s defense spending of nearly 5% of GDP and invoked the Latin principleSi vis pacem, para bellum— “If you want peace, prepare for war” — saying that, given Russia’s war in Ukraine and what Poland views as Moscow’s imperial ambitions, strengthening deterrence is the country’s only sound strategy.

A European diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, backed Tomczyk and said Poland sees a pattern of escalating Russian pressure on multiple fronts.“We are hurrying to be prepared for war since Russia is giving us and our neighbors constant signals that they want us back as their vassals, their colonial backyard,�

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The diplomat pointed to what they described as Russian disinformation campaigns, cyberattacks, sabotage efforts and repeated tests of Poland’s air defenses, as well as increasingly frequent nuclear rhetoric from Russian officials and propagandists.

“Altogether, it shows quite clearly that if Russia or Belarus saw any chance to attack Poland to destroy an obstacle to restoring the Soviet or Tsarist Russian empire in Eastern Europe, they would do it without hesitation,” the diplomat said.

The diplomat added that Tomczyk therefore had “quite solid bases to state his prediction,” while stressing that the concern was not rooted in hostility toward ordinary Russians.

“We want to have Russia as a good neighbor, business partner.We would like to host their tourists.We want to have a cultural exchange with them,” the diplomat said.“But they — at least the imperialists who are the foundation of the Putin administration — would like to turn Poland, the Baltics and, of course, Ukraine back into their colonial part of Europe.”

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A soldier launches an RQ-35 Heidrun drone used for reconnaissance and artillery fire correction in the Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, on Feb.22, 2026.(Dmytro Smolienko/Ukrinform/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

RetiredAir ForceGen.Philip Breedlove, who commanded U.S.European Command and served as NATO’s warning reflects a concern shared by many former military leaders.

“It’s a problem that many of us are worried about,” Breedlove said.“They’re trying to test the alliance: Is Italy going to go to war?Is Spain going to go to war?There are several places where Russia could try to snatch something.Their goal is to divide and ultimately break up the alliance.”

Breedlove warned Moscow could attempt a provocation calibrated to create uncertainty over whether NATO should respond collectively.

“It is likely that Russia will try to initiate a provocation that is just enough to raise the question of a NATO response,” he said, arguing that Moscow’s objective would be to expose divisions among allies.

NATO’s Article 4allows members to request consultations when an ally’s territorial integrity, political independence or security is threatened.Article 5provides forcollective defensefollowing an armed attack, although NATO says Article 4 consultations are not a prerequisite for action under Article 5.

The comments follow similar warnings from other eastern-flank governments.The Associated Press reported July 15that Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda said intelligence pointed to possible limited Russian attacks on critical infrastructure in the Baltics or Poland.Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said Warsaw was preparing “very intensively for various scenarios,” according to AP.Russia rejected the allegations.

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F-16 fighter jets take part in the NATO Air Shielding exercise near the air base in Lask, central Poland, on Oct.12, 2022.(Radoslaw Jozwiak/AFP via Getty Images)

The warnings came as tensions between Moscow and London escalated Tuesday.Russia’s embassy in Britain threatened unspecified “consequences” after The Times reported British-made drones had been used by Ukraine for long-range strikes inside Russia, according toReuters on Aug.18.Britain’s Ministry of Defense did not confirm whether British drones were used, Reuters reported.

“London’s actions will inevitably carry consequences for which it will have to answer,” the Russian Embassy said.The British defense ministry responded that Britain stood “shoulder to shoulder with Ukraine,”according to Reuters.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov escalated the rhetoric later Tuesday, saying Moscow had the right to regard direct British involvement in strikes on Russian territory as participation in the war, according toReuters on Aug.18.

Separately, Russian state television host Vladimir Solovyov called for using Russia’sPoseidon weapon against Britain, saying: “Give the British three days to learn to breathe underwater, then hit them with Poseidon,”The Times reported Aug.18.Poseidon is a nuclear-powered,nuclear-capable underwater weaponthat Russia said it successfully tested in October 2025,Reuters reported at the time.

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Breedlove described the rhetoric as part of a broaderRussian information campaignaimed at coercing Western governments.

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NATO’s largest annual maritime drill, Exercise Dynamic Mariner/Flotex 25, takes place in the Gulf of Cadiz off southern Spain on March 28, 2025.(Burak Akbulut/Anadolu via Getty Images)

“Without question, Russia is fighting an information war and trying to achieve what practitioners call ‘reflexive control’ to try to force NATO capitulation,” Breedlove said.

He argued that Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy, logistics and defense-industrial targets are creating growing pressure on the Kremlin and saidPresident Vladimir Putinmay increasingly seek to portray NATO itself as the external enemy.

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Breedlove said NATO is capable of facing Russia in aconventional warbut warned that the alliance faces a different vulnerability exposed by the conflict in Ukraine.

“What NATO is not ready for — and what the U.S.is not ready for — is the new kind ofdrone warfarethat Russia is waging against Ukraine,” Breedlove said.“Our air defense capabilities in the West are not even close to what is needed for the level ofdrone warfare that Russiais waging against Ukraine.”

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An F-16 fighter jet takes part in the NATO Air Shielding exercise near the air base in Lask, central Poland, on Oct.12, 2022.(Radoslaw Jozwiak/AFP via Getty Images)

Reuters and the Associated Press contributed to this report.

com/category/world/conflicts" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">conflict, global affairs, human rights and political accountability. She has directed and produced more than 200 documentary segments across more than 40 countries, documenting conflicts, humanitarian crises, corruption, human trafficking, gender-based violence and the human stories behind major world events. 

Lachter’s reporting has taken her into conflict zones and crisis areas across the Middle East, Europe, Asia and Africa.Her work has included uncovering human trafficking networks, revealing an ISIS underground torture prison in Syria, documenting thewar in Ukraine and interviewing senior political figures and world leaders.She was also among the Western journalists who entered Russia after the war began to bring testimonies from Putin’s opposition.Lachter is the recipient of the 2022 Peres Center for Peace Award and was a 2023–2024 Knight-Wallace Journalism Fellow at the University of Michigan.She also won two Rockower Awards for Excellence in Reporting.She holds a bachelor’s degree in communication and a master’s degree in political science.